GIF Sundsvall 1-0 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandviken make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at NP3 Arena this season.
Sandviken (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sandviken have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.40 for Sandviken. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sandviken in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIF Sundsvall lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2025, ended 1–0 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sandviken — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 49% versus Sandviken 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | Sandviken 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.35 xG and Sandviken 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.913 / defence 1.018 | Sandviken attack 0.885 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.344. Data: 47 GIF Sundsvall games / 47 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 33%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Sandviken 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Sandviken 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.35 / Sandviken 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.913 / def 1.018 | Sandviken attack 0.885 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sandviken xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 0 Sandviken.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 39% chance of winning, Sandviken a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 2W | Draws 1 | Sandviken 0W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Sandviken (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.91) and Sandviken's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandviken's attack (0.89x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.58
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.56
1.21
Sandviken xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.21 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 12D 18L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.43 PPG from 47 outings (19W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.43 for Sandviken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 7W 8D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.49 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 17W 12D 18L in their last 47 games (1.34 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 19W 10D 18L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Sandviken away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.26 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.09 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sandviken in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sandviken have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandviken won 5-0 on 1 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sandviken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
2
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken?
From 6 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Sandviken have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Sandviken 5-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 61%, Sandviken 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (GIF Sundsvall) and 65% (Sandviken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Sandviken in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Sandviken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 61% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 65% of Sandviken's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Sandviken 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Sandviken 1-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.35 xG and Sandviken 1.21 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Sandviken attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 33%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, Sandviken 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sandviken's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.34 PPG, Sandviken 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.