GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Orgryte IS at NP3 Arena in Superettan (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, GIF Sundsvall stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
GIF Sundsvall's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Orgryte IS — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Orgryte IS — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 2 for Orgryte IS and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Jun 2024, ended GIF Sundsvall 1–1 Orgryte IS — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Orgryte IS trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 46% versus Orgryte IS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | Orgryte IS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.11 xG and Orgryte IS 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.853 / defence 1.031 | Orgryte IS attack 1.021 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.192. Data: built from GIF Sundsvall's last 57 games and Orgryte IS's last 57.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 31% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 39%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.18 | Draw 3.34 | Orgryte IS 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: GIF Sundsvall 50% (last 10 home games) | Orgryte IS 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 28 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 31% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.11 / Orgryte IS 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.853 / def 1.031 | Orgryte IS attack 1.021 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Orgryte IS xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS FAQs
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 28) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 31% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.85x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from GIF Sundsvall's last 57 games and Orgryte IS's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
31%
3.18
30%
3.34
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.36
1.26
Orgryte IS xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.26 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 16W 14D 27L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Orgryte IS's form line: 20W 13D 24L from 57 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.09 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 28 home games (10W 8D 10L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 10W 5D 13L from their last 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.37 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
GIF Sundsvall (Home) vs Orgryte IS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS Form FAQs
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 16W 14D 27L in their last 57 games (1.09 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 20W 13D 24L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Orgryte IS away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.36 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 8 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
4
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2025: GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 57%, Orgryte IS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (GIF Sundsvall) and 43% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 50% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 43% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 75% of Orgryte IS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS finished level at 1-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.11 xG and Orgryte IS 1.26 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Orgryte IS attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 31% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 39%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, Orgryte IS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.09 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.