Orebro SK 0-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Osters IF travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Osters IF — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orebro SK at 1.50 PPG versus Osters IF's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orebro SK, 2 for Osters IF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Osters IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 53% versus Osters IF 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 56% | Osters IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.18 xG and Osters IF 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.998 / defence 0.747 | Osters IF attack 0.998 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.161. Orebro SK's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Orebro SK games / 57 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 42% | Draw 33% | Osters IF 25%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Osters IF 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 50% | Osters IF 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 42% | Draw 33% | Osters IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Orebro SK 1.18 / Osters IF 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.998 / def 0.747 | Osters IF attack 0.998 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Osters IF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Osters IF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Orebro SK 0 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Osters IF part of?
Orebro SK vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 42% chance of winning, Osters IF a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Orebro SK and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Osters IF?
Record (5 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 2 | Osters IF 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Osters IF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 1.00x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
42%
2.39
33%
3.05
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.05
0.86
Osters IF xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.86 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 17W 18D 22L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF's form line: 28W 15D 14L from 57 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.79 PPG from 28 outings (13W 11D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 11W 9D 8L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.82 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 17W 18D 22L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 28W 15D 14L in their last 57 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Osters IF away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.79 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Osters IF runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
3
Draws
3
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Osters IF?
From 7 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Osters IF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Osters IF 0-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 43%, Osters IF 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Orebro SK) and 61% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Orebro SK's games and 75% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Orebro SK's recent games and 61% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Osters IF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osters IF defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Orebro SK 0-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.18 xG and Osters IF 0.86 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.00 / defence 0.75 against Osters IF attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 42% | Draw 33% | Osters IF 25%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Osters IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 56%, Osters IF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osters IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Osters IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.