Mjallby AIF 1-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Mjallby AIF welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mjallby AIF at 1.30 PPG versus IF Brommapojkarna's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 2 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 43% versus IF Brommapojkarna 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 38% | IF Brommapojkarna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.69 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.141 / defence 0.936 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.400 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.353. IF Brommapojkarna have an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Mjallby AIF games / 36 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 40%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.69 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.141 / def 0.936 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.400 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.77
IF Brommapojkarna xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 37% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 40% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
37%
2.69
22%
4.47
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.47
1.77
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
6%
15.84
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.77 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 23W 15D 22L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 22L across 60 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.40 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 9W 9D 12L from 30 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 13W 4D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.78 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 29W 9D 22L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IF Brommapojkarna's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.20 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Mjallby AIF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 3-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, IF Brommapojkarna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 63% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 7, as Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.69 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.77 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.40 / defence 1.02, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 40%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 38%, IF Brommapojkarna 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.