Mjallby AIF 3-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kalmar FF make the trip to Strandvallen to face Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Monday 29 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Kalmar FF are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Mjallby AIF, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Kalmar FF — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mjallby AIF and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 43% versus Kalmar FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 38% | Kalmar FF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.55 xG and Kalmar FF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.021 / defence 0.863 | Kalmar FF attack 1.042 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.319. Data: 35 Mjallby AIF games / 35 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 29%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Kalmar FF 3.45. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Mjallby AIF dominate the H2H record, yet Kalmar FF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kalmar FF (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 50% | Kalmar FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 29 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.55 / Kalmar FF 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.021 / def 0.863 | Kalmar FF attack 1.042 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Kalmar FF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 April 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 46% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
Record (7 meetings): Mjallby AIF 4W | Draws 2 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.02x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (1.04x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
46%
2.19
25%
3.98
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.74
1.19
Kalmar FF xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
6%
16.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.19 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 23W 15D 22L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 28W 12D 20L across 60 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.60 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 9W 9D 12L from 30 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 10W 7D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.27 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 28W 12D 20L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Kalmar FF's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.20 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, Kalmar FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 53% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 53% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 53% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Kalmar FF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Kalmar FF 3-2 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.55 xG and Kalmar FF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kalmar FF outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against Kalmar FF attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 29%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 38%, Kalmar FF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.