Mjallby AIF 1-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Strandvallen to face Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Mjallby AIF (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
Gais have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.30 for Gais. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Gais and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 49% versus Gais 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 51% | Gais 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.95 xG and Gais 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.147 / defence 0.994 | Gais attack 0.724 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.222. Data: 57 Mjallby AIF games / 27 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 62% | Draw 23% | Gais 15%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Gais 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 90% | Gais 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 62% | Draw 23% | Gais 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.95 / Gais 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.147 / def 0.994 | Gais attack 0.724 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Gais xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Gais kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 Gais.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Gais part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 62% chance of winning, Gais a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Gais in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Gais (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.72x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.34
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.83
0.88
Gais xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
2%
45.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.88 for Gais, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 25W 11D 21L from 57 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 29W 11D 17L across 57 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.72 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 12W 7D 9L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 12W 5D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.61 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Gais in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Gais in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 25W 11D 21L in their last 57 games (1.51 PPG), while Gais have gone 29W 11D 17L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Gais away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.54 PPG; Gais away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Gais in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Gais?
From 5 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 1, Gais have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Gais 0-0 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 61%, Gais 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Mjallby AIF) and 57% (Gais). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais in 36%; Gais in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 43% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 57% of Gais's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Gais tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gais in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Gais share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF and Gais finished level at 1-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.95 xG and Gais 0.88 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Gais attack 0.72 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 62% | Draw 23% | Gais 15%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 51%, Gais 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.51 PPG, Gais 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.