IFK Norrkoping 0-3 Gais – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gais at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Platinumcars Arena to face IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Norrkoping have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Norrkoping's home record at Platinumcars Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Gais (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Gais have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gais are 0.50 PPG clear of IFK Norrkoping in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IFK Norrkoping lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gais — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 63% versus Gais 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 62% | Gais 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.24 xG and Gais 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.076 / defence 1.184 | Gais attack 0.855 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.313. Data: 41 IFK Norrkoping games / 41 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 35% | Draw 27% | Gais 39%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Gais 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gais as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Norrkoping 50% | Gais 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Platinumcars Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 35% | Draw 27% | Gais 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.24 / Gais 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.076 / def 1.184 | Gais attack 0.855 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Gais (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Gais xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Gais kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 May 2025 at Platinumcars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Gais?
IFK Norrkoping 0 - 3 Gais.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Platinumcars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Gais part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Gais is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 35% chance of winning, Gais a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Gais?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 2W | Draws 0 | Gais 0W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Gais in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Gais (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.85x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.77
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.57
1.33
Gais xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.33 for Gais, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Norrkoping's recent record stands at 21W 12D 27L from 60 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 17L across 60 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gais by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Norrkoping heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IFK Norrkoping have managed 13W 4D 13L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 13W 6D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.62 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gais in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Gais in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 21W 12D 27L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Gais have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.43 PPG; Gais away: 1.50 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Gais in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gais have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 0-3 on 31 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
IFK Norrkoping
0
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, Gais have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Gais 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 50%, Gais 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IFK Norrkoping) and 57% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Gais in 33%; Gais in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 47% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 57% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Gais tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Gais in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat IFK Norrkoping 0-3 at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.24 xG and Gais 1.33 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gais outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against Gais attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 35% | Draw 27% | Gais 39%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 62%, Gais 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.