IFK Goteborg 0-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IFK Goteborg (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Goteborg face IF Brommapojkarna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 24 as IFK Goteborg welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 September 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg at Gamla Ullevi this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
IFK Goteborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IFK Goteborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, IFK Goteborg have won 3, IF Brommapojkarna 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2025, ended 3–1 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 51% versus IF Brommapojkarna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | IF Brommapojkarna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.42 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.016 / defence 0.828 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.993 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.367. Data: 53 IFK Goteborg games / 53 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 43% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 29%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 60% | IF Brommapojkarna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 43% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.42 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.016 / def 0.828 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.993 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
IF Brommapojkarna xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 43% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Goteborg 3W | Draws 1 | IF Brommapojkarna 1W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 1.02x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.67
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.54
1.12
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
7%
14.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.12 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 20W 12D 21L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 16W 12D 25L from 53 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.36 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 7W 7D 12L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.55 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 games (1.36 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 16W 12D 25L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.31 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.08 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when IFK Goteborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when IFK Goteborg 2-1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 54%, IF Brommapojkarna 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (IFK Goteborg) and 54% (IF Brommapojkarna).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of IFK Goteborg's games and 65% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 54% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Brommapojkarna defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.42 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.12 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.83 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 43% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 29%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, IF Brommapojkarna 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.36 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.