IFK Goteborg 1-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AIK Stockholm (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Goteborg face AIK Stockholm.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg host AIK Stockholm at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 21 October 2024 at 18:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, IFK Goteborg have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 2.50 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of IFK Goteborg's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IFK Goteborg, 3 for AIK Stockholm and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2024, ended 2–5 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IFK Goteborg trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 50% versus AIK Stockholm 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 38% | AIK Stockholm 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.02 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.804 / defence 0.970 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.945 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.213. Data: 56 IFK Goteborg games / 56 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 32% | AIK Stockholm 36%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | AIK Stockholm 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 40% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 32% | AIK Stockholm 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.02 / AIK Stockholm 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.804 / def 0.970 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.945 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.11
AIK Stockholm xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 21 October 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 32% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
Record (6 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 2 | AIK Stockholm 3W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
32%
3.15
32%
3.13
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.13
1.11
AIK Stockholm xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.11 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 19D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.45 PPG from 56 outings (23W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.14 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 8W 9D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (9W 5D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.27 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 15W 19D 22L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 12D 21L in their last 56 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.18 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.14 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2024, when AIK Stockholm won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Goteborg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 46%, AIK Stockholm 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (IFK Goteborg) and 50% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 54% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 50% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IFK Goteborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IFK Goteborg 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.02 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.11 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AIK Stockholm outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 32% | AIK Stockholm 36%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 38%, AIK Stockholm 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.14 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.