IF Elfsborg 4-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Sirius meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 6W 2D 2L at Borås Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sirius have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sirius have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sirius in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, IF Elfsborg are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–4 with Sirius winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IF Elfsborg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Sirius — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus Sirius 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 62% | Sirius 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.44 xG and Sirius 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.138 / defence 0.906 | Sirius attack 1.077 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.170. Data: 34 IF Elfsborg games / 34 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 44% | Draw 26% | Sirius 30%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Sirius 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 60% | Sirius 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 44% | Draw 26% | Sirius 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.44 / Sirius 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.138 / def 0.906 | Sirius attack 1.077 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sirius xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
IF Elfsborg 4 - 3 Sirius.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 44% chance of winning, Sirius a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
Record (7 meetings): IF Elfsborg 5W | Draws 0 | Sirius 2W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.14) and Sirius's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.08x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.83
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.58
1.14
Sirius xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.14 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 33W 10D 17L from 60 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 25L across 60 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sirius heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 19W 6D 5L from 30 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.63 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 10D 17L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while Sirius have gone 24W 11D 25L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Sirius away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.10 PPG; Sirius away: 1.33 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sirius in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IF Elfsborg
0
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 6, Sirius have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 53%, Sirius 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for IF Elfsborg and 57% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sirius in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of IF Elfsborg's games and 57% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 57% of Sirius's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Sirius tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Sirius 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Sirius 4-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.44 xG and Sirius 1.14 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against Sirius attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 44% | Draw 26% | Sirius 30%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Sirius 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.