Hammarby FF 2-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 27 as Hammarby FF welcome Djurgardens IF to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hammarby FF, 2 for Djurgardens IF and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 3–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 46% versus Djurgardens IF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 54% | Djurgardens IF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.43 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 0.990 / defence 0.752 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.053 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.232. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Hammarby FF games / 56 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 47% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 25%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Djurgardens IF 4.00. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 40% | Djurgardens IF 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 47% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Hammarby FF 1.43 / Djurgardens IF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 0.990 / def 0.752 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.053 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Djurgardens IF xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 21 October 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF 2 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 47% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (6 meetings): Hammarby FF 2W | Draws 2 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (0.99) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.52
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.40
0.97
Djurgardens IF xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
6%
16.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.97 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 25W 16D 15L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 29W 10D 17L from 56 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.62 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.00 PPG from 28 outings (16W 8D 4L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 13W 4D 11L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.45 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 25W 16D 15L in their last 56 games (1.62 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 10D 17L in their last 56 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.00 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
4
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 61%, Djurgardens IF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Hammarby FF and 57% for Djurgardens IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Djurgardens IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hammarby FF's games and 54% of Djurgardens IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hammarby FF's matches and 57% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Djurgardens IF 2-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.43 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Djurgardens IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 0.99 / defence 0.75 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 47% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 25%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 54%, Djurgardens IF 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.62 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.