Gais 2-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gais and Sirius meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Gais (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gais at Gamla Ullevi this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sirius's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sirius away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Gais against 1.30 for Sirius. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gais lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 43% versus Sirius 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 55% | Sirius 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.39 xG and Sirius 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.853 / defence 0.775 | Sirius attack 1.163 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.348. Gais's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Gais games / 40 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 40% | Draw 28% | Sirius 32%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Sirius 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Gais 30% | Sirius 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 40% | Draw 28% | Sirius 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Gais 1.39 / Sirius 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.853 / def 0.775 | Sirius attack 1.163 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Gais (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sirius xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Sirius kick off?
Gais vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Sirius?
Gais 2 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Gais vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Sirius part of?
Gais vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 40% chance of winning, Sirius a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gais and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Sirius?
Record (2 meetings): Gais 1W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are Gais and Sirius in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.16x) against Gais's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.60
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Gais xG
Total xG
2.60
1.22
Sirius xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gais and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Gais and 1.22 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gais come into this having played 60 games, going 31W 12D 17L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.38 PPG from 60 outings (24W 11D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Gais against 1.38 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gais's home form reads 18W 6D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gais are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.63 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Sirius in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 games (1.75 PPG), while Sirius have gone 24W 11D 25L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Sirius away?
Gais's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.00 PPG; Sirius away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Gais or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sirius in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gais
0
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Sirius?
From 5 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, Sirius have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sirius 2-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 40%, Sirius 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gais) and 57% (Sirius). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 30% of games; Sirius in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gais's recent matches and 57% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gais's matches and 57% of Sirius's.
Do Gais and Sirius tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gais edge out Sirius 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Sirius 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.39 xG and Sirius 1.22 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.85 / defence 0.78 against Sirius attack 1.16 / defence 1.18, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 40% | Draw 28% | Sirius 32%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 55%, Sirius 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.75 PPG, Sirius 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.