Djurgardens IF 1-2 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host Orebro SK at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 17 June 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 0.71 xG and Orebro SK 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.986 / defence 1.150 | Orebro SK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.622 / away 1.258. Data: 1 Djurgardens IF games / 1 Orebro SK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 18% | Draw 37% | Orebro SK 45%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 5.56 | Draw 2.70 | Orebro SK 2.22. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Jun 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 18% | Draw 37% | Orebro SK 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Djurgardens IF 0.71 / Orebro SK 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.986 / def 1.150 | Orebro SK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.622 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Orebro SK xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 17 June 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 2 Orebro SK.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 18% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 45% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (0.99) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
18%
5.70
37%
2.67
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
1.94
1.23
Orebro SK xG
5.70
18%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
5%
19.49
22%
4.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 17.7 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.23 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Pre-Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2020, when Djurgardens IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Djurgardens IF
0
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 3, Orebro SK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when Orebro SK 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Orebro SK?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Orebro SK edge out Djurgardens IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Djurgardens IF 1-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 0.71 xG and Orebro SK 1.23 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Orebro SK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 18% | Draw 37% | Orebro SK 45%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.