Djurgardens IF 1-3 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF meet at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 15 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Djurgardens IF at 3Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.70 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Djurgardens IF lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus Mjallby AIF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 47% | Mjallby AIF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.759 / defence 0.733 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.192 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.360. Djurgardens IF's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Djurgardens IF games / 38 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 28% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 42%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Mjallby AIF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 60% | Mjallby AIF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 15 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 28% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Djurgardens IF 0.92 / Mjallby AIF 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.759 / def 0.733 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.192 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Mjallby AIF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 15 May 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 3 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 28% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (6 meetings): Djurgardens IF 3W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 2W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Djurgardens IF's attack at 0.76x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.19x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
28%
3.53
30%
3.34
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.11
1.19
Mjallby AIF xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.4 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.19 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 31W 10D 19L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.52 PPG from 60 outings (26W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.52 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 18W 6D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.27 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.00 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 4-0 on 31 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-2 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 43%, Mjallby AIF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Djurgardens IF) and 43% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 40% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 43% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Djurgardens IF 1-3 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.76 / defence 0.73 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.19 / defence 0.88, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 28% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 42%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.