Djurgardens IF 0-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Gais meet at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at 3Arena, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gais (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Djurgardens IF, 1.60 for Gais — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Djurgardens IF 1W, Gais 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Gais — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus Gais 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 47% | Gais 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG and Gais 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.914 / defence 0.978 | Gais attack 0.960 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.198. Data: 33 Djurgardens IF games / 33 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 36% | Draw 29% | Gais 35%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Gais 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 60% | Gais 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 36% | Draw 29% | Gais 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.15 / Gais 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.914 / def 0.978 | Gais attack 0.960 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Gais xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Gais kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Gais kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 21 April 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 0 Gais.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Gais part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 36% chance of winning, Gais a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Gais?
Record (2 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Gais in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Gais (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (0.91) and Gais's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.96x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.50
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.27
1.12
Gais xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.12 for Gais, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF's recent record stands at 31W 10D 19L from 60 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 17L across 60 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.75 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Djurgardens IF have managed 18W 6D 6L from 30 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 13W 6D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.62 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Gais in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Gais in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while Gais have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Gais away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.00 PPG; Gais away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gais in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Gais?
From 6 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 3, Gais have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Djurgardens IF 2-0 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Gais?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 43%, Gais 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Djurgardens IF) and 57% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Gais in 33%; Gais in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 47% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 57% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Gais tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Gais in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Djurgardens IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF and Gais finished level at 0-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG and Gais 1.12 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gais landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Gais attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 36% | Draw 29% | Gais 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, Gais 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG, Gais 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.