Degerfors IF 0-3 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 43%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 26 as Degerfors IF welcome Vasteras SK FK to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Degerfors IF have won 0, Vasteras SK FK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2026, ended 0–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 47% versus Vasteras SK FK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 51% | Vasteras SK FK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.47 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.868 / defence 0.980 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.959 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.319. Data: 55 Degerfors IF games / 25 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 32%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Vasteras SK FK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 50% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Degerfors IF 1.47 / Vasteras SK FK 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.868 / def 0.980 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.959 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Vasteras SK FK xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Degerfors IF 0 - 3 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 43% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.87x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.91
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.71
1.24
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.24 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Degerfors IF come into this having played 55 games, going 13W 11D 31L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.87 PPG from 55 outings (31W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Degerfors IF's home form reads 4W 7D 16L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.74 points per game from 27 outings (15W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.78 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 13W 11D 31L in their last 55 games (0.91 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 31W 10D 14L in their last 55 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 0.70 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 28 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-3 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 41%, Vasteras SK FK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Degerfors IF) and 70% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 48% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 52% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Degerfors IF's matches and 70% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Degerfors IF 0-3 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.47 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.96 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 32%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 51%, Vasteras SK FK 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.