Degerfors IF 1-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Osters IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osters IF make the trip to Stora Valla to face Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Degerfors IF (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Degerfors IF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osters IF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Osters IF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Osters IF's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Osters IF are 1.20 PPG clear of Degerfors IF in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.80 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Osters IF in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Degerfors IF, 1 for Osters IF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Osters IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Osters IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 60% and Osters IF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Degerfors IF 63% | Osters IF 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.05 xG and Osters IF 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.707 / defence 1.322 | Osters IF attack 0.677 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.313. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Degerfors IF games / 11 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 32% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 39%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Osters IF 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 60% | Osters IF 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Osters IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 31 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 32% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Degerfors IF 1.05 / Osters IF 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.707 / def 1.322 | Osters IF attack 0.677 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Osters IF xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Osters IF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 May 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Osters IF?
Degerfors IF 1 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Osters IF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 32% chance of winning, Osters IF a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Degerfors IF and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Osters IF?
Record (2 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Osters IF in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.71x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (0.68x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
32%
3.08
29%
3.47
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.23
1.18
Osters IF xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.18 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 7W 5D 18L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Osters IF's form line: 16W 6D 8L from 30 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. Osters IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Degerfors IF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (5W 2D 8L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 7W 4D 4L from 15 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.90 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Osters IF in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Osters IF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 7W 5D 18L in their last 30 games (0.87 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 16W 6D 8L in their last 30 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Osters IF away?
Osters IF's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.13 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
2
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Osters IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Osters IF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Osters IF 1-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Degerfors IF, 87% for Osters IF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Degerfors IF and 73% for Osters IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Degerfors IF's games and 87% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Degerfors IF's matches and 73% of Osters IF's.
Do Degerfors IF and Osters IF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Degerfors IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Degerfors IF 1-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.05 xG and Osters IF 1.18 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osters IF outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.71 / defence 1.32 against Osters IF attack 0.68 / defence 1.11, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 32% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 39%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 63%, Osters IF 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.