Degerfors IF 0-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 21 as Degerfors IF welcome AIK Stockholm to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 1.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 3 for AIK Stockholm and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2025, ended 0–3 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 58% versus AIK Stockholm 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 54% | AIK Stockholm 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.73 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.513 / defence 1.176 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.789 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.344. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.513 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Degerfors IF games / 50 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 22% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 48%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | AIK Stockholm 2.08. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 40% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 22% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Degerfors IF 0.73 / AIK Stockholm 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.513 / def 1.176 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.789 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.25
AIK Stockholm xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Degerfors IF 0 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 22% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (7 meetings): Degerfors IF 2W | Draws 2 | AIK Stockholm 3W.
What form are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.51) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
22%
4.62
30%
3.32
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
1.98
1.25
AIK Stockholm xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
6%
16.07
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 17.2 | 10.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.25 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Degerfors IF come into this having played 50 games, going 19W 13D 18L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.76 PPG from 50 outings (26W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.40 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Degerfors IF's home form reads 10W 6D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.48 points per game from 25 outings (11W 4D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.42 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 19W 13D 18L in their last 50 games (1.40 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 26W 10D 14L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
AIK Stockholm's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.44 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2025, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 56%, AIK Stockholm 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Degerfors IF) and 44% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 48% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 44% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Degerfors IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.73 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.25 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.51 / defence 1.18 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 22% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 48%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 54%, AIK Stockholm 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.40 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.