BK Hacken 1-6 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Djurgardens IF travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 July 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 1.50 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for BK Hacken, 4 for Djurgardens IF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 54% versus Djurgardens IF 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 63% | Djurgardens IF 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.71 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.251 / defence 1.297 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.706 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.196. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 BK Hacken games / 46 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 52% | Draw 24% | Djurgardens IF 24%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Djurgardens IF 4.17. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: BK Hacken 60% | Djurgardens IF 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jul 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 52% | Draw 24% | Djurgardens IF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG BK Hacken 1.71 / Djurgardens IF 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.251 / def 1.297 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.706 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Djurgardens IF xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 27 July 2025 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
BK Hacken 1 - 6 Djurgardens IF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF part of?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 52% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
Record (8 meetings): BK Hacken 2W | Draws 2 | Djurgardens IF 4W.
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.25x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.18
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.81
1.09
Djurgardens IF xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
4%
22.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.09 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 18W 10D 18L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 22W 9D 15L from 46 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.39 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (9W 5D 8L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 11W 1D 10L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.30 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 18W 10D 18L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 22W 9D 15L in their last 46 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.45 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
BK Hacken
2
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 73%, Djurgardens IF 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for BK Hacken and 50% for Djurgardens IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 36% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of BK Hacken's matches and 50% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 1-6 hammering of BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat BK Hacken 1-6 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.71 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.09 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.09 projection by 4.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.25 / defence 1.30 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.71 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 52% | Draw 24% | Djurgardens IF 24%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Djurgardens IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 63%, Djurgardens IF 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.39 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.