AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AIK Stockholm face Kalmar FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Kalmar FF at Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 3). Kick-off is Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, AIK Stockholm have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Kalmar FF have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kalmar FF away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AIK Stockholm 1.40 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for AIK Stockholm, 3 for Kalmar FF and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended AIK Stockholm 1–0 Kalmar FF — a AIK Stockholm win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 47% versus Kalmar FF 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 50% | Kalmar FF 67%). Note also that Kalmar FF surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while AIK Stockholm recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.11 xG and Kalmar FF 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.044 / defence 0.959 | Kalmar FF attack 0.968 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.367. Kalmar FF's defence rating of 1.307 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AIK Stockholm's projected output up. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 32 games and Kalmar FF's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 57% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 22%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.76 | Draw 4.81 | Kalmar FF 4.44. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.11 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (AIK Stockholm's last 10 home games and Kalmar FF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | Kalmar FF 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (AIK Stockholm 32 games, Kalmar FF 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 3 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 57% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG AIK Stockholm 2.11 / Kalmar FF 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.044 / def 0.959 | Kalmar FF attack 0.968 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Kalmar FF xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 3) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 57% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (1.04) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 32 games and Kalmar FF's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.81
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
3.38
1.27
Kalmar FF xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
12%
8.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
3%
36.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.27 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 13W 9D 8L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Kalmar FF's form line: 8W 6D 16L from 30 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, AIK Stockholm are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 15 home games (7W 6D 2L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 4W 4D 7L from their last 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.27 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalmar FF in 70%.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs Kalmar FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Kalmar FF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.80 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.07 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2020. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AIK Stockholm have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
3
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 47%, Kalmar FF 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for AIK Stockholm and 67% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of AIK Stockholm's games and 80% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of AIK Stockholm's matches and 67% of Kalmar FF's.
Do AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 87% of Kalmar FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Kalmar FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Kalmar FF 1-0 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.11 xG and Kalmar FF 1.27 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Kalmar FF attack 0.97 / defence 1.31, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 57% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 22%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 50%, Kalmar FF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.