Mjallby AIF 3-0 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 43%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Mjallby AIF welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.20 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen.
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Mjallby AIF have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 2 for IF Brommapojkarna and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 60% versus IF Brommapojkarna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.17 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.872 / defence 0.996 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.014 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.412. Data: 32 Mjallby AIF games / 32 IF Brommapojkarna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 31% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 43%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 31% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.17 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.872 / def 0.996 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.014 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.43
IF Brommapojkarna xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 31% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (6 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 2 | IF Brommapojkarna 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
31%
3.24
26%
3.82
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.59
1.43
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
7%
13.50
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.43 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 37W 14D 9L from 60 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 29L across 60 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IF Brommapojkarna heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 20W 9D 1L from 30 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 9W 9D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.43 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 37W 14D 9L in their last 60 games (2.08 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.30 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Mjallby AIF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 3-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 67%, IF Brommapojkarna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Mjallby AIF) and 50% (IF Brommapojkarna).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mjallby AIF's games and 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 50% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.17 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.43 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 31% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 43%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 50%, IF Brommapojkarna 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.