AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Degerfors IF at Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Strawberry Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, AIK Stockholm have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for AIK Stockholm, 3 for Degerfors IF and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Degerfors IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 60% versus Degerfors IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 60% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.17 xG and Degerfors IF 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.224 / defence 1.581 | Degerfors IF attack 0.660 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.298. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 AIK Stockholm games / 57 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 56% | Draw 20% | Degerfors IF 23%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Degerfors IF 4.35. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 70% | Degerfors IF 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 56% | Draw 20% | Degerfors IF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG AIK Stockholm 2.17 / Degerfors IF 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.224 / def 1.581 | Degerfors IF attack 0.660 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Degerfors IF xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Strawberry Arena.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 56% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
Record (9 meetings): AIK Stockholm 4W | Draws 2 | Degerfors IF 3W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.22x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
56%
1.78
20%
4.89
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
3.53
1.35
Degerfors IF xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
11%
8.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.90
3%
37.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.35 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 57 games, going 23W 17D 17L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 0.88 PPG from 57 outings (13W 11D 33L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 11W 9D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 1.00 points per game from 28 outings (8W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 0.96 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 17D 17L in their last 57 games (1.51 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 13W 11D 33L in their last 57 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Degerfors IF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.50 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2025, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 54%, Degerfors IF 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for AIK Stockholm and 61% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 29% of games; Degerfors IF in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of AIK Stockholm's games and 57% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of AIK Stockholm's matches and 61% of Degerfors IF's.
Do AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.