Villarreal 3-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Villarreal at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Alaves encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Alaves travel to Estadio de la Cerámica to take on Villarreal in La Liga (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Villarreal have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Villarreal's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Alaves stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Alaves's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Villarreal carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Villarreal, 1 for Alaves and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended Villarreal 1–1 Alaves — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Villarreal trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Alaves trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Villarreal 82% and Alaves 41% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 67% | Alaves 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.16 xG and Alaves 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.264 / defence 1.380 | Alaves attack 0.931 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.091. Villarreal carry an above-average attack rating of 1.264 — their 2.16 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Alaves's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Villarreal's projected output up. Villarreal's defence rating of 1.380 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Data: built from Villarreal's last 49 games and Alaves's last 50.

Result probabilities: Villarreal 54% | Draw 22% | Alaves 24%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.85 | Draw 4.47 | Alaves 4.24. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.16 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Villarreal's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Villarreal 80% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights