Villarreal 3-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Villarreal at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Alaves travel to Estadio de la Cerámica to take on Villarreal. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's home record at Estadio de la Cerámica: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Villarreal carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Villarreal, 1 for Alaves and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Villarreal trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Alaves trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Villarreal 82% and Alaves 41% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 67% | Alaves 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.16 xG and Alaves 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.264 / defence 1.380 | Alaves attack 0.931 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.091. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Villarreal games / 50 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 54% | Draw 22% | Alaves 24%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Alaves 4.17. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 80% | Alaves 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 54% | Draw 22% | Alaves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Villarreal 2.16 / Alaves 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.264 / def 1.380 | Alaves attack 0.931 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Alaves xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Alaves kick off?
Villarreal vs Alaves kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Alaves?
Villarreal 3 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Villarreal vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Alaves part of?
Villarreal vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 54% chance of winning, Alaves a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Villarreal and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Alaves?
Record (4 meetings): Villarreal 1W | Draws 2 | Alaves 1W.
What form are Villarreal and Alaves in?
Villarreal (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Alaves (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Villarreal vs Alaves?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Villarreal's attack at 1.26x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.47
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.57
1.40
Alaves xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
3%
36.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.40 for Alaves, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Villarreal have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 20W 14D 15L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves's form line: 16W 11D 22L from 49 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Villarreal on 1.51 PPG, Alaves on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Villarreal have posted 1.42 PPG from 24 outings (9W 7D 8L).
On the road, Alaves have gone 4W 6D 14L from 24 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Villarreal are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.02 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Alaves in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 20W 14D 15L in their last 49 games (1.51 PPG), while Alaves have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Alaves away?
Villarreal's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.42 PPG; Alaves away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Villarreal and Alaves runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2021, when Villarreal won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Villarreal's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 3, Alaves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Alaves 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Alaves?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 83%, Alaves 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Villarreal) and 42% (Alaves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alaves in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Alaves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Villarreal's games and 46% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Villarreal's matches and 42% of Alaves's.
Do Villarreal and Alaves tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Alaves in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Alaves 3-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.16 xG and Alaves 1.40 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.26 / defence 1.38 against Alaves attack 0.93 / defence 1.20, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 54% | Draw 22% | Alaves 24%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 67%, Alaves 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Alaves's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.51 PPG, Alaves 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.