Valladolid 1-2 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Villarreal travel to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla to take on Valladolid in La Liga (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Valladolid stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Valladolid have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Villarreal — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Villarreal are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Valladolid, 1 for Villarreal and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Valladolid 2–1 Villarreal — a Valladolid win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Valladolid in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 20% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valladolid 50% and Villarreal 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Valladolid 70% | Villarreal 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.92 xG and Villarreal 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.671 / defence 1.108 | Villarreal attack 1.139 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.102. Valladolid's attack rating of 0.671 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Valladolid's last 10 games and Villarreal's last 48.
Result probabilities: Valladolid 22% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 45%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 4.50 | Draw 3.09 | Villarreal 2.20. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Valladolid's last 5 home games and Villarreal's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Valladolid 40% (last 5 home games) | Villarreal 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 22% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Valladolid 0.92 / Villarreal 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.671 / def 1.108 | Villarreal attack 1.139 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Villarreal xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valladolid vs Villarreal FAQs
What time does Valladolid vs Villarreal kick off?
Valladolid vs Villarreal kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Villarreal?
Valladolid 1 - 2 Villarreal.
Where is Valladolid vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Villarreal part of?
Valladolid vs Villarreal is a La Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 22% chance of winning, Villarreal a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valladolid and Villarreal will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Valladolid vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valladolid's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Villarreal's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Valladolid's last 10 games and Villarreal's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
22%
4.50
32%
3.09
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.31
1.39
Villarreal xG
4.50
22%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
6%
18.07
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.8 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valladolid vs Villarreal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.39 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Valladolid have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 2W 2D 6L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Villarreal's form line: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valladolid have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 5 home games (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 3W 1D 1L from their last 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valladolid are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 90%.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
Valladolid (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valladolid
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Valladolid vs Villarreal Form FAQs
What form are Valladolid and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.00 PPG; Villarreal away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Valladolid or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Villarreal in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Villarreal have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Villarreal won Villarreal 5-1 Valladolid.
Valladolid's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Valladolid
0
Draws
3
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Valladolid vs Villarreal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Villarreal?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Valladolid have won 1, Villarreal have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Villarreal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Villarreal 5-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valladolid's games tend to start slowly — only 20% have a goal by half-time.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 40%, Villarreal 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Valladolid) and 60% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valladolid vs Villarreal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valladolid and Villarreal matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Valladolid's games and 80% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Valladolid and Villarreal matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Valladolid's recent games and 60% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Villarreal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 20% of Valladolid's recent matches and 100% of Villarreal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Valladolid 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Valladolid 1-2 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.92 xG and Villarreal 1.39 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.67 / defence 1.11 against Villarreal attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 22% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 45%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 70%, Villarreal 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Villarreal's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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