Valencia 2-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Valencia at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Almeria travel to Estadio de Mestalla to take on Valencia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia at Estadio de Mestalla this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mestalla. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Almeria — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Almeria have posted 0W 0D 10L from 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Valencia are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Valencia have won 0, Almeria 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Valencia in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Almeria in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 48% versus Almeria 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 45% | Almeria 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.79 xG and Almeria 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.963 / defence 0.704 | Almeria attack 0.972 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.156. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Valencia's defence rating of 0.704 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Valencia games / 60 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 60% | Draw 25% | Almeria 15%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Almeria 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Valencia (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Valencia 30% | Almeria 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 60% | Draw 25% | Almeria 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Valencia 1.79 / Almeria 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.963 / def 0.704 | Almeria attack 0.972 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Valencia (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Almeria xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Almeria kick off?
Valencia vs Almeria kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Almeria?
Valencia 2 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Valencia vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Almeria part of?
Valencia vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 60% chance of winning, Almeria a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Valencia and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Almeria?
Record (3 meetings): Valencia 0W | Draws 2 | Almeria 1W.
What form are Valencia and Almeria in?
Valencia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Almeria (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Valencia's attack at 0.96x the league average against Almeria's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.06
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.58
0.79
Almeria xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
3%
39.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Valencia and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Valencia and 0.79 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Almeria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 20W 14D 26L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almeria's form line: 11W 14D 35L from 60 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valencia are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almeria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.69 PPG from 29 outings (14W 7D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Almeria have gone 1W 5D 23L from 29 away games — 0.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.17 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 65%.
Last 60 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Almeria in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Almeria have gone 11W 14D 35L in their last 60 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Almeria away?
Valencia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.69 PPG; Almeria away: 0.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Valencia's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Valencia
2
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Valencia have won 1, Almeria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Valencia 2-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 41%, Almeria 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Valencia) and 69% (Almeria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Almeria in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Valencia's games and 69% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valencia vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Valencia's matches and 69% of Almeria's.
Do Valencia and Almeria tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Almeria in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Almeria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Almeria 2-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.79 xG and Almeria 0.79 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.96 / defence 0.70 against Almeria attack 0.97 / defence 1.36, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 60% | Draw 25% | Almeria 15%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 45%, Almeria 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Almeria's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.