Valencia 2-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Valencia at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Almeria encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Almeria travel to Estadio de Mestalla to take on Valencia in La Liga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Valencia have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Valencia at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Valencia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Almeria — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Almeria have posted 0W 0D 10L from their last 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Valencia are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Valencia have won 0, Almeria 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Valencia 2–2 Almeria — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Valencia in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Almeria in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 48% versus Almeria 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 45% | Almeria 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.79 xG and Almeria 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.963 / defence 0.704 | Almeria attack 0.972 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.156. Almeria's defence rating of 1.360 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Valencia's projected output up. Valencia have a tight defence (rating 0.704), which is pulling Almeria's projected output down. Data: built from Valencia's last 60 games and Almeria's last 60.

Result probabilities: Valencia 60% | Draw 25% | Almeria 15%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.66 | Draw 4.06 | Almeria 6.60. The model has a clear lean to Valencia (60%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valencia 30% (last 10 home games) | Almeria 70% (last 10 away games).

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