Valencia vs Alaves – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Valencia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alaves have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Alaves are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Valencia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Alaves in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valencia lead 3W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Valencia — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Alaves — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 51% versus Alaves 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 42% | Alaves 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.02 xG and Alaves 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.744 / defence 1.253 | Alaves attack 0.830 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.250. Valencia's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Valencia games / 45 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 28% | Draw 30% | Alaves 42%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Alaves 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Valencia 60% | Alaves 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 28% | Draw 30% | Alaves 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Valencia 1.02 / Alaves 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.744 / def 1.253 | Alaves attack 0.830 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Alaves (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Alaves xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Alaves kick off?
Valencia vs Alaves is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Estadio de Mestalla.
Where is Valencia vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Alaves part of?
Valencia vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 28% chance of winning, Alaves a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valencia and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Alaves?
Record (9 meetings): Valencia 3W | Draws 2 | Alaves 4W.
What form are Valencia and Alaves in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Alaves (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valencia's attack at 0.74x the league average against Alaves's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.83x) against Valencia's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
28%
3.52
30%
3.37
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.32
1.30
Alaves xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Valencia and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Valencia and 1.30 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valencia come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 11D 20L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.20 PPG from 45 outings (14W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Valencia against 1.20 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valencia's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.22 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 60%.
Last 45 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Alaves in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Alaves have gone 14W 12D 19L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Alaves away?
Valencia's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.36 PPG; Alaves away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Valencia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Valencia
2
Draws
4
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Alaves?
From 9 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Alaves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2026, when Alaves 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 54%, Alaves 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Valencia) and 41% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Valencia have failed to score in 27% of games; Alaves in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Valencia's recent matches and 54% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Valencia's recent games and 41% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.