Osasuna vs Real Madrid – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osasuna at 36%, yet in-form Real Madrid provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osasuna vs Real Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Real Madrid meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Osasuna (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Real Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Real Madrid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Madrid's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid are 1.20 PPG clear of Osasuna in recent La Liga fixtures (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 10 meetings, Real Madrid have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Osasuna's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Osasuna winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Madrid have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Osasuna — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Real Madrid — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 54% versus Real Madrid 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 49% | Real Madrid 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.01 xG and Real Madrid 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.790 / defence 0.856 | Real Madrid attack 1.035 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.104. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Osasuna games / 42 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 31% | Real Madrid 34%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Real Madrid 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Real Madrid (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Osasuna 70% | Real Madrid 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 31% | Real Madrid 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Osasuna 1.01 / Real Madrid 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.790 / def 0.856 | Real Madrid attack 1.035 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Real Madrid xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Madrid kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Madrid is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 April 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Madrid part of?
Osasuna vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 36% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Osasuna and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
Record (10 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 3 | Real Madrid 6W.
What form are Osasuna and Real Madrid in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Real Madrid (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Real Madrid's attack (1.03x) against Osasuna's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
36%
2.82
31%
3.23
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Osasuna xG
Total xG
1.99
0.98
Real Madrid xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.98 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 10D 18L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Madrid's form line: 29W 5D 7L from 41 games, 2.24 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Real Madrid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Real Madrid are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Real Madrid have gone 12W 4D 5L from 21 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Osasuna are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.10 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Real Madrid
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 29W 5D 7L in their last 41 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.71 PPG; Real Madrid away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Madrid won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
3
Draws
6
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Real Madrid have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 67%, Real Madrid 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Osasuna) and 52% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Real Madrid in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Osasuna's games and 52% of Real Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Osasuna's recent games and 52% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.