Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Deportivo La Coruna travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 January 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.78 xG and Deportivo La Coruna 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.959 / defence 1.083 | Deportivo La Coruna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.119. Data: 38 Osasuna games / 0 Deportivo La Coruna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 55% | Draw 23% | Deportivo La Coruna 22%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Deportivo La Coruna 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 55% | Draw 23% | Deportivo La Coruna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Osasuna 1.78 / Deportivo La Coruna 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.959 / def 1.083 | Deportivo La Coruna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Deportivo La Coruna xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna kick off?
Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna part of?
Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 55% chance of winning, Deportivo La Coruna a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osasuna and Deportivo La Coruna will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Deportivo La Coruna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Deportivo La Coruna in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Deportivo La Coruna's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Deportivo La Coruna's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.30
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.81
1.03
Deportivo La Coruna xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
4%
27.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Deportivo La Coruna expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.03 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Pre-Season
Deportivo La Coruna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Deportivo La Coruna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.