Mallorca 3-1 Elche – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mallorca at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Elche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Elche travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Elche — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Elche have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mallorca 1.20 PPG, Elche 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mallorca register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Elche in 71% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Mallorca have won 0, Elche 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Elche winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Elche in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mallorca 60% and Elche 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 53% | Elche 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.44 xG and Elche 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.928 / defence 1.028 | Elche attack 0.775 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.121. Data: 53 Mallorca games / 15 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 50% | Draw 27% | Elche 23%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Elche 4.35. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mallorca 60% | Elche 71% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 50% | Draw 27% | Elche 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Mallorca 1.44 / Elche 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.928 / def 1.028 | Elche attack 0.775 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Elche xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Elche kick off?
Mallorca vs Elche kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Elche?
Mallorca 3 - 1 Elche.
Where is Mallorca vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Elche part of?
Mallorca vs Elche is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 50% chance of winning, Elche a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mallorca and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Elche?
Record (4 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 2 | Elche 2W.
What form are Mallorca and Elche in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Elche (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.93) and Elche's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Elche's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.72
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.33
0.89
Elche xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
6%
17.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.89 for Elche, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mallorca come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 5D 7L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Elche sit at 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (4W 7D 4L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 0.93 PPG, Elche on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mallorca's home form reads 2W 4D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Elche have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Elche's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 1.20 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mallorca have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Elche in 60%.
Last 15 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Elche in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Elche have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Elche away?
Mallorca's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.43 PPG; Elche away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Elche won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Elche specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Mallorca
2
Draws
3
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Elche?
From 6 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Elche have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Elche 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Elche?
Elche have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Elche see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 57%, Elche 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Mallorca) and 43% (Elche).
On the defensive side: Elche in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Elche?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Mallorca's games and 71% of Elche's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Mallorca's recent games and 43% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Elche tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Elche in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Elche.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Elche 3-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.44 xG and Elche 0.89 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Elche attack 0.78 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 50% | Draw 27% | Elche 23%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 53%, Elche 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Elche's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 0.93 PPG, Elche 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Elche (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.