Mallorca 1-1 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mallorca face Celta Vigo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Celta Vigo make the trip to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to face Mallorca in La Liga (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Mallorca (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Mallorca's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Celta Vigo have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Mallorca against 1.00 for Celta Vigo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Mallorca, 1 for Celta Vigo and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Mallorca 1–0 Celta Vigo — a Mallorca win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 39% versus Celta Vigo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 30% | Celta Vigo 47%). Note also that Celta Vigo surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Mallorca recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.26 xG and Celta Vigo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.838 / defence 0.837 | Celta Vigo attack 0.994 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.131. Data: built from Mallorca's last 57 games and Celta Vigo's last 57.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 42% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 26%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.39 | Draw 3.08 | Celta Vigo 3.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mallorca 40% (last 10 home games) | Celta Vigo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, matchday 20 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 42% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Mallorca 1.26 / Celta Vigo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.838 / def 0.837 | Celta Vigo attack 0.994 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Celta Vigo xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Celta Vigo FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Mallorca vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Celta Vigo.
Where is Mallorca vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Celta Vigo part of?
Mallorca vs Celta Vigo is a La Liga fixture (matchday 20) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 42% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mallorca and Celta Vigo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Mallorca vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.84) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.99x) against Mallorca's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 57 games and Celta Vigo's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
42%
2.39
33%
3.08
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.21
0.94
Celta Vigo xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Celta Vigo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.94 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mallorca's recent record stands at 17W 17D 23L from 57 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 26L across 57 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Mallorca against 1.04 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 12W 11D 5L from their last 28 home games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 5W 7D 16L across their last 28 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
Mallorca (Home) vs Celta Vigo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Mallorca vs Celta Vigo Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 17W 17D 23L in their last 57 games (1.19 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 14W 17D 26L in their last 57 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Celta Vigo away?
Mallorca's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.68 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mallorca and Celta Vigo, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
3
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Celta Vigo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Celta Vigo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 3, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Celta Vigo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 39%, Celta Vigo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Mallorca) and 50% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 29% of games; Celta Vigo in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Celta Vigo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Celta Vigo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Mallorca's recent matches and 54% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mallorca and Celta Vigo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Mallorca's recent games and 50% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Celta Vigo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Mallorca's recent matches and 68% of Celta Vigo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Celta Vigo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 20, as Mallorca and Celta Vigo drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.26 xG and Celta Vigo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 0.84 against Celta Vigo attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 42% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 26%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 30%, Celta Vigo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.19 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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