Barcelona 1-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Barcelona (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Barcelona face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osasuna make the trip to Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys to face Barcelona in La Liga (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Barcelona (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Barcelona's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Osasuna have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Barcelona. A 0.70 PPG lead over Osasuna (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Barcelona's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) — Barcelona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Osasuna in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Barcelona have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Osasuna managing 0 and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Barcelona 2–1 Osasuna — a Barcelona win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Barcelona and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Barcelona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Barcelona 42% versus Osasuna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Barcelona 56% | Osasuna 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barcelona 2.21 xG and Osasuna 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barcelona attack 1.300 / defence 1.337 | Osasuna attack 1.016 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.165. Barcelona carry an above-average attack rating of 1.300 — their 2.21 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Osasuna's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Barcelona's projected output up. Barcelona's defence rating of 1.337 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osasuna's projected output up. Data: built from Barcelona's last 59 games and Osasuna's last 59.
Result probabilities: Barcelona 51% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 27%. Fair-value odds: Barcelona 1.95 | Draw 4.51 | Osasuna 3.75. Barcelona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Barcelona as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Barcelona if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Barcelona's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Barcelona 60% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barcelona vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 20 | Venue: Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barcelona 51% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Barcelona 2.21 / Osasuna 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Barcelona attack 1.300 / def 1.337 | Osasuna attack 1.016 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Barcelona (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Barcelona xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Osasuna xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Barcelona vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Barcelona vs Osasuna kick off?
Barcelona vs Osasuna kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 31 January 2024 at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys.
What was the final score in Barcelona vs Osasuna?
Barcelona 1 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Barcelona vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys.
What competition is Barcelona vs Osasuna part of?
Barcelona vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 20) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Barcelona vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Barcelona a 51% chance of winning, Osasuna a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Barcelona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Barcelona and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Barcelona vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Barcelona's attack at 1.30x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (1.02x) against Barcelona's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from Barcelona's last 59 games and Osasuna's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Barcelona Win
51%
1.95
22%
4.51
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Barcelona xG
Total xG
3.80
1.58
Osasuna xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
11%
9.14
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
3%
34.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Barcelona vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Barcelona vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Barcelona and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Barcelona and 1.58 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Barcelona vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Barcelona have picked up 2.24 PPG on a 41W 9D 9L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 22W 13D 24L from 59 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Barcelona are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Barcelona have posted 2.45 PPG from their last 29 home games (23W 2D 4L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 7W 9D 13L from their last 29 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barcelona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Barcelona are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.07 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Barcelona have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barcelona
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
Barcelona (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Barcelona
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Barcelona vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Barcelona and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Barcelona have gone 41W 9D 9L in their last 59 games (2.24 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 22W 13D 24L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barcelona at home or Osasuna away?
Barcelona's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barcelona at home: 2.45 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Barcelona or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Barcelona have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Osasuna in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Barcelona and Osasuna, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Barcelona have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Barcelona won Barcelona 4-0 Osasuna on 13 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Barcelona have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Barcelona
1
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Barcelona vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Barcelona and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Barcelona have won 8, Osasuna have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Barcelona and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Osasuna 1-2 Barcelona.
Who has won more matches between Barcelona and Osasuna?
Barcelona have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Barcelona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barcelona 31%, Osasuna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Barcelona) and 38% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Barcelona keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; Osasuna in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barcelona home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Barcelona vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Barcelona and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Barcelona's recent matches and 52% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Barcelona and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Barcelona's recent games and 38% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Barcelona and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Barcelona's recent matches and 76% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Barcelona edge out Osasuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barcelona beat Osasuna 1-0 at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barcelona 2.21 xG and Osasuna 1.58 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Barcelona fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Osasuna landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barcelona attack 1.30 / defence 1.34 against Osasuna attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barcelona 51% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 27%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barcelona 56%, Osasuna 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barcelona's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osasuna's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Barcelona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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