Las Palmas 2-1 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Las Palmas at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Las Palmas vs Valladolid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Las Palmas and Valladolid meet at Estadio de Gran Canaria in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Las Palmas's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Estadio de Gran Canaria this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio de Gran Canaria this season.
Valladolid (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 6L across 7 road games this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.86 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Las Palmas's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Valladolid's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Las Palmas half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Valladolid half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Las Palmas 73% and Valladolid 47% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 60% | Valladolid 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.95 xG and Valladolid 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.907 / defence 1.194 | Valladolid attack 0.769 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.146. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing Las Palmas's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Las Palmas games / 15 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 58% | Draw 22% | Valladolid 20%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Valladolid 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Las Palmas (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Las Palmas at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 70% | Valladolid 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 58% | Draw 22% | Valladolid 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Las Palmas 1.95 / Valladolid 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.907 / def 1.194 | Valladolid attack 0.769 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Valladolid xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Valladolid kick off?
Las Palmas vs Valladolid kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Las Palmas 2 - 1 Valladolid.
Where is Las Palmas vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Valladolid part of?
Las Palmas vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 58% chance of winning, Valladolid a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Las Palmas and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Valladolid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Las Palmas and Valladolid in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Valladolid (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Las Palmas's attack rating (0.91) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valladolid's attack (0.77x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.52
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
3.01
1.05
Valladolid xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
3%
35.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.05 for Valladolid, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 3D 8L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valladolid's form line: 2W 3D 10L from 15 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Las Palmas are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
On the road, Valladolid have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Las Palmas are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.67 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Las Palmas have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 2W 3D 10L in their last 15 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Valladolid away?
Las Palmas's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 0.86 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
1
Draws
0
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Valladolid?
From 2 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 1, Valladolid have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Valladolid 1-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Valladolid?
Las Palmas have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 71%, Valladolid 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Las Palmas) and 71% (Valladolid). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valladolid in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Valladolid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Las Palmas's games and 43% of Valladolid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Las Palmas vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Las Palmas's matches and 71% of Valladolid's.
Do Las Palmas and Valladolid tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Las Palmas edge out Valladolid 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Valladolid 2-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.95 xG and Valladolid 1.05 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.91 / defence 1.19 against Valladolid attack 0.77 / defence 1.46, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 58% | Draw 22% | Valladolid 20%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 60%, Valladolid 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Valladolid's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Las Palmas arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.