Las Palmas 1-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 36%, yet in-form Girona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Las Palmas vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Girona travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria to take on Las Palmas in La Liga (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Las Palmas — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Las Palmas at home: 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Girona have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Girona have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Girona — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Las Palmas, 2 for Girona and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Las Palmas 0–2 Girona — a Girona win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 48% versus Girona 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 35% | Girona 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.25 xG and Girona 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.872 / defence 1.146 | Girona attack 0.945 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.097. Data: built from Las Palmas's last 48 games and Girona's last 48.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 36% | Draw 32% | Girona 32%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.81 | Draw 3.13 | Girona 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Las Palmas are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Las Palmas offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Las Palmas 60% (last 10 home games) | Girona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 36% | Draw 32% | Girona 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Las Palmas 1.25 / Girona 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.872 / def 1.146 | Girona attack 0.945 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Girona xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Las Palmas vs Girona FAQs
What time does Las Palmas vs Girona kick off?
Las Palmas vs Girona kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Girona?
Las Palmas 1 - 0 Girona.
Where is Las Palmas vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Girona part of?
Las Palmas vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 36% chance of winning, Girona a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Las Palmas and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Las Palmas vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Las Palmas's attack rating (0.87) and Girona's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Las Palmas's last 48 games and Girona's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
36%
2.81
32%
3.13
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.44
1.19
Girona xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Las Palmas vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.19 for Girona, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Las Palmas's recent record stands at 11W 13D 24L from 48 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 11L across 48 games — 1.94 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Las Palmas heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Las Palmas have managed 6W 9D 9L from their last 24 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 11W 6D 7L across their last 24 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Las Palmas are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 2.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Girona
Blended
Las Palmas (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Las Palmas
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Las Palmas vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Las Palmas and Girona in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 11W 13D 24L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Girona have gone 28W 9D 11L in their last 48 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.12 PPG; Girona away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Las Palmas or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Las Palmas have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Girona in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Las Palmas's record when hosting Girona specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
0
Draws
3
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Las Palmas vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Girona?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Las Palmas have won 1, Girona have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2025: Girona 2-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 54%, Girona 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Las Palmas) and 50% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Las Palmas vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Las Palmas and Girona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Las Palmas's games and 58% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Las Palmas and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Las Palmas's recent games and 50% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 83% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Las Palmas edge out Girona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Girona 1-0 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.25 xG and Girona 1.19 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Girona landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Girona attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 36% | Draw 32% | Girona 32%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 35%, Girona 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Girona's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Las Palmas winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Las Palmas (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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