Valencia 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Granada CF travel to Estadio de Mestalla to take on Valencia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valencia have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio de Mestalla — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's away record: 0W 1D 4L from 5 road trips in La Liga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Valencia are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Valencia, 0 for Granada CF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with Valencia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Valencia in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Granada CF in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 46% versus Granada CF 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 54% | Granada CF 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 2.16 xG and Granada CF 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.978 / defence 0.775 | Granada CF attack 0.908 / defence 1.460. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.216. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.460 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Valencia's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Valencia games / 11 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 67% | Draw 20% | Granada CF 13%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Granada CF 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Valencia (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Valencia 40% | Granada CF 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 67% | Draw 20% | Granada CF 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 51% | xG Valencia 2.16 / Granada CF 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.978 / def 0.775 | Granada CF attack 0.908 / def 1.460 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Valencia (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Granada CF xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Granada CF kick off?
Valencia vs Granada CF kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Granada CF?
Valencia 1 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Valencia vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Granada CF part of?
Valencia vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 67% chance of winning, Granada CF a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valencia and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Granada CF?
Record (2 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 1 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Valencia and Granada CF in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.98) and Granada CF's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.11
13%
7.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Valencia xG
Total xG
3.01
0.86
Granada CF xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
7.45
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
12%
8.66
Win to Nil
28%
3.51
2%
64.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Valencia and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Valencia and 0.86 for Granada CF, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 4W 3D 4L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Granada CF's form line: 1W 3D 7L from 11 games, 0.55 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valencia are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Granada CF have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.55 scored and 2.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF in 73%.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Granada CF away?
Valencia's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.80 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Valencia have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Valencia's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Valencia
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2024, when Granada CF 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Granada CF?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 20%, Granada CF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Valencia) and 60% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Granada CF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Valencia's recent matches and 60% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Valencia's recent games and 60% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Granada CF tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Granada CF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Granada CF 1-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 2.16 xG and Granada CF 0.86 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Granada CF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.98 / defence 0.78 against Granada CF attack 0.91 / defence 1.46, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 67% | Draw 20% | Granada CF 13%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 54%, Granada CF 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Granada CF's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.