Girona 1-0 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Las Palmas encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Las Palmas travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona in La Liga (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Girona — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Girona at home: 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Girona are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 3 matches, Las Palmas stand at 0W 2D 1L — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On current form, Girona have the edge — a 0.83 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.67) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Girona in-play and half-time data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Las Palmas in-play and half-time data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 67% versus Las Palmas 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Girona 67% | Las Palmas 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.89 xG and Las Palmas 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.230 / defence 0.908 | Las Palmas attack 0.706 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.246. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Girona's last 41 games and Las Palmas's last 3.
Result probabilities: Girona 63% | Draw 22% | Las Palmas 15%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.58 | Draw 4.62 | Las Palmas 6.58. The model has a clear lean to Girona (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Girona 60% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 33% (last 3 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 63% | Draw 22% | Las Palmas 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Girona 1.89 / Las Palmas 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.230 / def 0.908 | Las Palmas attack 0.706 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Girona (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Las Palmas xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Girona vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Girona vs Las Palmas kick off?
Girona vs Las Palmas kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Girona 1 - 0 Las Palmas.
Where is Girona vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Las Palmas part of?
Girona vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 63% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Girona and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Girona vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Girona's attack at 1.23x the league average against Las Palmas's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Las Palmas's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Girona's last 41 games and Las Palmas's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.62
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Girona xG
Total xG
2.69
0.80
Las Palmas xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
2%
43.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Girona vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Girona and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Girona and 0.80 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Las Palmas?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 1D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W.
On the other side, Las Palmas sit at 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-L-D across their last five.
Girona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.66 PPG clear of Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. Girona's scoring rate against Las Palmas's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Early Season
Las Palmas
Early Season
Girona (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Girona
Early Season
Las Palmas
Early Season
❓ Girona vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Girona and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Girona or Las Palmas been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Las Palmas in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Girona's record when hosting Las Palmas specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Girona
0
Draws
1
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Girona vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Las Palmas?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Girona have won 3, Las Palmas have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2025: Girona 2-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Las Palmas?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 67%, Las Palmas 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Girona and 0% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Las Palmas in 33%; Las Palmas in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Girona vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Girona and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Girona's recent matches and 33% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Girona and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Girona's recent games and 0% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Girona's recent matches and 33% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Las Palmas 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Las Palmas 1-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.89 xG and Las Palmas 0.80 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Girona fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Las Palmas landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.23 / defence 0.91 against Las Palmas attack 0.71 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 63% | Draw 22% | Las Palmas 15%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 67%, Las Palmas 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Las Palmas's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Girona managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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