Celta Vigo 1-1 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Abanca-Balaídos plays host to Celta Vigo versus Las Palmas in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Monday 31 March 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Celta Vigo have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Celta Vigo at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Celta Vigo are significantly better at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos than their overall form suggests.
Las Palmas (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Las Palmas's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Celta Vigo's 1.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Las Palmas's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Las Palmas in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Celta Vigo, 1 for Las Palmas and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Celta Vigo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 62% versus Las Palmas 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 58% | Las Palmas 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.82 xG and Las Palmas 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.116 / defence 0.946 | Las Palmas attack 0.864 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.173. Data: 66 Celta Vigo games / 66 Las Palmas games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 23% | Las Palmas 20%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Las Palmas 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Celta Vigo (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 60% | Las Palmas 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Monday 31 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 23% | Las Palmas 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Celta Vigo 1.82 / Las Palmas 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.116 / def 0.946 | Las Palmas attack 0.864 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Las Palmas xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 31 March 2025 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?
Celta Vigo 1 - 1 Las Palmas.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas part of?
Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 58% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Celta Vigo and Las Palmas will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Las Palmas?
Record (3 meetings): Celta Vigo 2W | Draws 0 | Las Palmas 1W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Las Palmas in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Las Palmas (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Celta Vigo's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.86x) against Celta Vigo's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
58%
1.74
23%
4.38
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.77
0.96
Las Palmas xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
3%
31.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.96 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 21W 17D 28L from 66 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Las Palmas, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 33L across 66 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Celta Vigo against 0.98 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 15W 8D 10L from 33 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Celta Vigo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Las Palmas's away record stands at 7W 6D 20L across 33 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.98 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Las Palmas
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 21W 17D 28L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 16W 17D 33L in their last 66 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Las Palmas away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.61 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 4-1 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
1
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Las Palmas?
From 4 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 2, Las Palmas have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Las Palmas last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Celta Vigo 1-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Las Palmas?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 58%, Las Palmas 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Celta Vigo) and 42% (Las Palmas).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Las Palmas?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 48% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 42% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Las Palmas tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Las Palmas in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo and Las Palmas share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo and Las Palmas finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.82 xG and Las Palmas 0.96 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Celta Vigo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.12 / defence 0.95 against Las Palmas attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 23% | Las Palmas 20%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 58%, Las Palmas 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Las Palmas's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.21 PPG, Las Palmas 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.