Alaves 1-1 Leganes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Leganes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Leganes travel to Estadio de Mendizorroza to take on Alaves. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves at Estadio de Mendizorroza this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mendizorroza. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Leganes have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Leganes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leganes away from home this season: 0W 4D 3L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 0.60 PPG, Leganes 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Leganes in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 50% versus Leganes 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 64% | Leganes 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.61 xG and Leganes 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.884 / defence 1.007 | Leganes attack 0.949 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.104. Leganes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Alaves games / 14 Leganes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 50% | Draw 25% | Leganes 25%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Leganes 4.00. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 30% | Leganes 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Leganes | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 50% | Draw 25% | Leganes 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Alaves 1.61 / Leganes 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.884 / def 1.007 | Leganes attack 0.949 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Alaves (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Leganes xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Leganes kick off?
Alaves vs Leganes kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Leganes?
Alaves 1 - 1 Leganes.
Where is Alaves vs Leganes being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Leganes part of?
Alaves vs Leganes is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Leganes?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 50% chance of winning, Leganes a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Leganes?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Alaves and Leganes will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Leganes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Leganes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Leganes in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Leganes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Alaves vs Leganes?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alaves's attack at 0.88x the league average against Leganes's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Leganes's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.03
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.67
1.05
Leganes xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
5%
20.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Leganes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Alaves and Leganes expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Alaves and 1.05 for Leganes, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Leganes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Alaves have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 4W 1D 9L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Leganes's form line: 3W 5D 6L from 14 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Leganes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alaves on 0.93 PPG, Leganes on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Leganes have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Leganes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Leganes are on 0.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 14 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Leganes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Leganes in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 4W 1D 9L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Leganes have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Leganes away?
Alaves's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.67 PPG; Leganes away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alaves
2
Draws
0
Leganes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Leganes?
From 2 meetings on record, Alaves have won 0, Leganes have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Leganes last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Leganes 3-3 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Leganes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 33%, Leganes 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Alaves) and 33% (Leganes).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 33% of games; Leganes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Leganes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Leganes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alaves's recent matches and 67% of Leganes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Leganes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Alaves's recent games and 33% of Leganes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Leganes tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Leganes in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alaves and Leganes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves and Leganes finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.61 xG and Leganes 1.05 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Leganes attack 0.95 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 50% | Draw 25% | Leganes 25%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 64%, Leganes 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Leganes's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 0.93 PPG, Leganes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leganes (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.