Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 38%, yet in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings meet at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Suwon Bluewings's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1 for Suwon Bluewings and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% versus Suwon Bluewings 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% | Suwon Bluewings 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.237 / defence 1.328 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.980 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 0.974 / away 1.150. Suwon Bluewings bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 24 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% | Draw 24% | Suwon Bluewings 38%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Suwon Bluewings 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Suwon Bluewings 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% | Draw 24% | Suwon Bluewings 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 / Suwon Bluewings 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.237 / def 1.328 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.980 / def 1.229 | league avg home 0.974 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Suwon Bluewings xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 37% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (2 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 0W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.98x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
37%
2.67
24%
4.10
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.98
1.50
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.50 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 12W 9D 3L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 9W 7D 8L from 24 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon Bluewings.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 11 outings (6W 4D 1L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 5W 3D 3L from 11 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.33 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Suwon Bluewings in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 12W 9D 3L in their last 24 games (1.88 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 9W 7D 8L in their last 24 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon Bluewings won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 15 July 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 64%, Suwon Bluewings 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 54% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 46%; Suwon Bluewings in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 36% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 54% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon Bluewings 3-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.50 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.33 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.98 / defence 1.23, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% | Draw 24% | Suwon Bluewings 38%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%, Suwon Bluewings 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.