Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024, 07:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.90 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 0 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.95 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.265 / defence 0.936 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.959 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.203. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 65 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 32 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Draw 22% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Draw 22% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.95 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.265 / def 0.936 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.959 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 57% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (3 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
57%
1.74
22%
4.58
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.03
1.08
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
33.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.08 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 17W 7D 8L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 16W 8D 8L from 32 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.81 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.25 PPG from 16 outings (11W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Ulsan Hyundai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 6W 5D 5L from 16 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.53 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 17W 7D 8L in their last 32 games (1.81 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 16W 8D 8L in their last 32 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 44% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 31%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 44% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 44% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.95 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.08 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.94 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 65/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Draw 22% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 21%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.81 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.