Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1 (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 09:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 0 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 3–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a Ulsan Hyundai FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%). Note also that Gimcheon Sangmu FC surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Ulsan Hyundai FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.98 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.429 / defence 0.802 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.943 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.278. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.429 — their 1.98 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 43 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 11.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Draw 22% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.66 | Draw 4.45 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 5.81. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Draw 22% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.98 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.429 / def 0.802 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.943 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 12) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 60% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 43 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.45
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.95
0.97
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
2%
42.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.97 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 24W 7D 9L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 8W 14D 18L from 40 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.15 PPG from their last 20 home games (13W 4D 3L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 9D 8L from their last 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 60%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 24W 7D 9L in their last 40 games (1.98 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 65%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 50% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 65% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 80% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC finished level at 2-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.98 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.43 / defence 0.80 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Draw 22% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 17%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.