Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-2 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 August 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jeonbuk Motors — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Jeonbuk Motors and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2025, ended 1–3 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Jeonbuk Motors 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.22 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.998 / defence 1.070 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.250 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.261. Jeonbuk Motors have an above-average attack strength of 1.250 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 60 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 28% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 48%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.08. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Jeonbuk Motors 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 28% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.22 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.998 / def 1.070 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.250 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Jeonbuk Motors xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 28% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (6 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 1 | Jeonbuk Motors 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
28%
3.62
24%
4.16
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.91
1.69
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
5%
19.54
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.69 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 30W 16D 19L from 65 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 30W 16D 19L across 65 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.63 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 19W 6D 7L from 32 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 15W 4D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.54 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 30W 16D 19L in their last 65 games (1.63 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 30W 16D 19L in their last 65 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.97 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Jeonbuk Motors 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 56% (Jeonbuk Motors). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 34%; Jeonbuk Motors in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 38% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 56% of Jeonbuk Motors's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.22 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.69 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.07 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.25 / defence 0.83, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 28% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 48%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%, Jeonbuk Motors 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.63 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.