Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jeju United FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeju United FC's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1.40 for Jeju United FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The historical record gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Jeju United FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Jeju United FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 xG and Jeju United FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.212 / defence 1.180 | Jeju United FC attack 0.896 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.258. Data: 46 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 46 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 29% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Jeju United FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Jeju United FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 29% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 / Jeju United FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.212 / def 1.180 | Jeju United FC attack 0.896 / def 0.906 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Jeju United FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 29% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (8 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 6W | Draws 0 | Jeju United FC 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.21x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.90x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
29%
3.42
30%
3.34
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.42
1.33
Jeju United FC xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.33 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 20D 24L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 76 outings (26W 12D 38L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.18 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 21W 8D 9L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 0.89 points per game from 38 outings (9W 7D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.01 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 26W 12D 38L in their last 76 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.87 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 7, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Jeju United FC 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, Jeju United FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 50% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 55% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 50% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 xG and Jeju United FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.18 against Jeju United FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 29% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 41%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Jeju United FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.