Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Jeju United FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jeju United FC's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Ulsan Hyundai FC's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W, Jeju United FC 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Jeju United FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Jeju United FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.93 xG and Jeju United FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.397 / defence 0.833 | Jeju United FC attack 0.857 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.115. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 41 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 13%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Jeju United FC 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Jeju United FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.93 / Jeju United FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.397 / def 0.833 | Jeju United FC attack 0.857 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Jeju United FC xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 62% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (1 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Jeju United FC 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.40x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.86x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
62%
1.61
25%
3.99
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.73
0.80
Jeju United FC xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
2%
54.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.80 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 76 games, going 45W 17D 14L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.22 PPG from 76 outings (24W 21D 31L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 25W 8D 5L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.29 points per game from 38 outings (14W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 games (2.00 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Ulsan Hyundai FC
0
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 8, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 63%, Jeju United FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 53% (Jeju United FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 58% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 53% of Jeju United FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 3-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.93 xG and Jeju United FC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.40 / defence 0.83 against Jeju United FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 13%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%, Jeju United FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.