Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 21 July 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeju United FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Ulsan Hyundai FC's favour (1.90 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% and Jeju United FC 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 61% | Jeju United FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.38 xG and Jeju United FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.468 / defence 1.105 | Jeju United FC attack 1.190 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.191. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.468 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 56 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 22% | Jeju United FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Jeju United FC 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 80% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jul 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 22% | Jeju United FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.38 / Jeju United FC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.468 / def 1.105 | Jeju United FC attack 1.190 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Jeju United FC xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 21 July 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 55% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.47x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (1.19x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
55%
1.83
22%
4.59
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.95
1.57
Jeju United FC xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
9%
10.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
2%
45.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.57 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 61 games, going 39W 12D 10L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.34 PPG from 61 outings (22W 16D 23L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 20W 6D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.36 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 39W 12D 10L in their last 61 games (2.11 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 22W 16D 23L in their last 61 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.20 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Ulsan Hyundai FC
0
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 8, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 60% for Jeju United FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 60% for Jeju United FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 60% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 60% of Jeju United FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Jeju United FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.38 xG and Jeju United FC 1.57 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.47 / defence 1.10 against Jeju United FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.19, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 22% | Jeju United FC 24%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 61%, Jeju United FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.