Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC meet at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 10 July 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gwangju FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.30 for Gwangju FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Gwangju FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Gwangju FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Gwangju FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% | Gwangju FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.03 xG and Gwangju FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.302 / defence 0.878 | Gwangju FC attack 0.915 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.174. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 54 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% | Draw 21% | Gwangju FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Gwangju FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Gwangju FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Jul 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% | Draw 21% | Gwangju FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.03 / Gwangju FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.302 / def 0.878 | Gwangju FC attack 0.915 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Gwangju FC xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 10 July 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 62% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (2 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 0W | Draws 0 | Gwangju FC 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Gwangju FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.92x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
62%
1.60
21%
4.80
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.97
0.94
Gwangju FC xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
13%
7.59
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
2%
45.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.94 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 34W 13D 12L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gwangju FC's form line: 24W 12D 23L from 59 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gwangju FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.31 PPG from 29 outings (20W 7D 2L).
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 9W 8D 12L from 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 34W 13D 12L in their last 59 games (1.95 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 24W 12D 23L in their last 59 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.31 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 5-1 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%, Gwangju FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 38% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gwangju FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 59% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 38% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.03 xG and Gwangju FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.88 against Gwangju FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% | Draw 21% | Gwangju FC 17%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Gwangju FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%, Gwangju FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Gwangju FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.