Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Gangwon FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Ulsan Hyundai FC) versus 1.40 (Gangwon FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Gangwon FC and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Gangwon FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Gangwon FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.40 xG and Gangwon FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.962 / defence 0.976 | Gangwon FC attack 0.960 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.223. Data: 33 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 33 Gangwon FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Gangwon FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Gangwon FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.40 / Gangwon FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.962 / def 0.976 | Gangwon FC attack 0.960 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Gangwon FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 42% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (7 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 2 | Gangwon FC 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.56
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.15
Gangwon FC xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.15 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 20D 24L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.53 PPG from 76 outings (32W 20D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 21W 8D 9L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 1.26 points per game from 38 outings (14W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.87 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 Gangwon FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, Gangwon FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 47% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 50% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 47% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gangwon FC 3-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.40 xG and Gangwon FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Gangwon FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 30%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Gangwon FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.