Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55%, yet in-form Gangwon FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Gangwon FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 September 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Gangwon FC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Gangwon FC and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Gangwon FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% versus Gangwon FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Gangwon FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.86 xG and Gangwon FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.236 / defence 1.037 | Gangwon FC attack 0.939 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.141. Data: 62 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 62 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 23% | Gangwon FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Gangwon FC 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gangwon FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Gangwon FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 23% | Gangwon FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.86 / Gangwon FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.236 / def 1.037 | Gangwon FC attack 0.939 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Gangwon FC xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 55% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (3 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Gangwon FC 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.24x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.42
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.97
1.11
Gangwon FC xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
4%
28.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.11 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 67 games, going 38W 13D 16L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.33 PPG from 67 outings (22W 23D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 22W 7D 4L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 1.15 points per game from 33 outings (9W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 67 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 38W 13D 16L in their last 67 games (1.90 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 22W 23D 22L in their last 67 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%, Gangwon FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 30% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 46% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 30% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gangwon FC 2-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.86 xG and Gangwon FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gangwon FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against Gangwon FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 23% | Gangwon FC 23%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%, Gangwon FC 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.