Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Relegation Group - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 05:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 4W 3D 3L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Daegu FC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 9 meetings, with Daegu FC managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% versus Daegu FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Daegu FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.78 xG and Daegu FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.904 / defence 0.931 | Daegu FC attack 1.136 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.228. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 66 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 25% | Daegu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Daegu FC 3.70. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Daegu FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Group - 34 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 25% | Daegu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.78 / Daegu FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.904 / def 0.931 | Daegu FC attack 1.136 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Daegu FC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC is a Relegation Group - 34 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 48% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
Record (9 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 6W | Draws 3 | Daegu FC 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (1.14x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.03
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.30
Daegu FC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
5%
21.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.30 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 31W 19D 21L from 71 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 22D 33L across 71 games — 0.99 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 20W 7D 8L from 35 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 5W 9D 21L across 35 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.28 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC in 63%.
Last 71 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 31W 19D 21L in their last 71 games (1.58 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 16W 22D 33L in their last 71 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.91 PPG; Daegu FC away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
0
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, Daegu FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 49%, Daegu FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 66% for Daegu FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Daegu FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 60% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 66% of Daegu FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Relegation Group - 34, as Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.78 xG and Daegu FC 1.30 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Daegu FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.31, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 25% | Daegu FC 27%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, Daegu FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.99. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.