Suwon City FC 2-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Gimcheon Sangmu FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Suwon City FC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Suwon City FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Suwon City FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2022, ended 1–0 with Suwon City FC winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 61% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 61% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.54 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.269 / defence 1.233 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.892 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.302. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Suwon City FC games / 31 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 40% | Draw 24% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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